Tag Archives: secession

The fate of empires: mass immigration

One of the oft-repeated phenomena of great empires is the influx of foreigners to the capital city. Roman historians often complain of the number of Asians and Africans in Rome. Baghdad, in its prime in the ninth century, was international in its population—Persians, Turks, Arabs, Armenians, Egyptians, Africans and Greeks mingled in its streets. In London today, Cypriots, Greeks, Italians, Russians, Africans, Germans and Indians jostle one another on the buses and in the underground, so that it sometimes seems difficult to find any British. The same applies to New York, perhaps even more so. This problem does not consist in any inferiority of one race as compared with another, but simply in the differences between them.

In the age of the first outburst and the subsequent Age of Conquests, the race is normally ethnically more or less homogeneous. This state of affairs facilitates a feeling of solidarity and comradeship. But in the Ages of Commerce and Affluence, every type of foreigner floods into the great city, the streets of which are reputed to be paved with gold. As, in most cases, this great city is also the capital of the empire, the cosmopolitan crowd at the seat of empire exercises a political influence greatly in excess of its relative numbers.

Second- or third-generation foreign immigrants may appear outwardly to be entirely assimilated, but they often constitute a weakness in two directions. First, their basic human nature often differs from that of the original imperial stock. If the earlier imperial race was stubborn and slow-moving, the immigrants might come from more emotional races, thereby introducing cracks and schisms into the national policies, even if all were equally loyal.

Second, while the nation is still affluent, all the diverse races may appear equally loyal. But in an acute emergency, the immigrants will often be less willing to sacrifice their lives and their property than will be the original descendants of the founder race.

Third, the immigrants are liable to form communities of their own, protecting primarily their own interests, and only in the second degree that of the nation as a whole.

Fourth, many of the foreign immigrants will probably belong to races originally conquered by and absorbed into the empire. While the empire is enjoying its High Noon of prosperity, all these people are proud and glad to be imperial citizens. But when decline sets in, it is extraordinary how the memory of ancient wars, perhaps centuries before, is suddenly revived, and local or provincial movements appear demanding secession or independence. Some day this phenomenon will doubtless appear in the now apparently monolithic and authoritarian Soviet empire. It is amazing for how long such provincial sentiments can survive.

John Glubb, The Fate of Empires.

More parallels.

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The Express Gazette is not good at geopolitics

Mysterious and unnamed Russian ‘experts’ have a map in the Express Gazette predicting what Europe will look like in 2035.

Every secession movement in Western Europe wins, as do some that don’t even exist; Bosnia and Moldova disappear; and for added comedy value, France clips a bit of the hexagon off and gives it to the Arabs. Russians are honest: “Мультикультурный крах уже претерпевает Франция.”

Russia’s expansion confirms what the sub-4chan quality of the map already suggests: one of these “experts” works for the Express Gazette, and all the others are bottles of vodka. In 2035, Russia will have invaded Ukraine so hard that they end up with a third of Moldova. Right. Also Belarus, half of Latvia, and… Narva, because they lost Kaliningrad to Germany. Wasn’t there a largest ethnic cleansing in European history about that?

Best part: sovereign Carpathian Ruthenia. Because seven microstates weren’t enough.