The mystery model’s predictions

On May 6, I predicted that Clinton would win New Jersey, California, New Mexico, and Kentucky and Sanders would win West Virginia, Oregon, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana.

On May 10, Sanders won West Virginia.

On May 17, Clinton won Kentucky and Sanders won Oregon.

The other six primaries were held yesterday. Sanders won North Dakota and Montana. Clinton won New Jersey, California, New Mexico, South Dakota, and New Mexico.

Eight out of nine isn’t bad.

Now that all states have voted, we can complete the chart.

State % black Winner
Mississippi 37.3% Clinton
Louisiana 32.4% Clinton
Georgia 31.4% Clinton
Maryland 30.1% Clinton
South Carolina 28.5% Clinton
Alabama 26.4% Clinton
North Carolina 21.6% Clinton
Delaware 20.1% Clinton
Virginia 19.9% Clinton
Tennessee 16.8% Clinton
Florida 15.9% Clinton
Arkansas 15.8% Clinton
New York 15.2% Clinton
Illinois 14.9% Clinton
New Jersey 14.5% Clinton
Michigan 14.2% Sanders
Ohio 12.0% Clinton
Texas 11.9% Clinton
Missouri 11.5% Clinton
Pennsylvania 10.8% Clinton
Connecticut 10.3% Clinton
Indiana 9.1% Sanders
Nevada 9.0% Clinton
Kentucky 8.2% Clinton
Massachusetts 8.1% Clinton
Oklahoma 8.0% Sanders
Rhode Island 7.5% Sanders
California 6.7% Clinton
Kansas 6.2% Sanders
Wisconsin 6.1% Sanders
Minnesota 4.6% Sanders
Nebraska 4.5% Sanders
Colorado 4.3% Sanders
Alaska 4.3% Sanders
Arizona 4.2% Clinton
Washington 3.7% Sanders
West Virginia 3.6% Sanders
Hawaii 3.1% Sanders
New Mexico 3.0% Clinton
Iowa 2.7% Clinton
Oregon 2.0% Sanders
Wyoming 1.3% Sanders
Utah 1.3% Sanders
New Hampshire 1.2% Sanders
South Dakota 1.1% Clinton
North Dakota 1.1% Sanders
Maine 1.0% Sanders
Idaho 1.0% Sanders
Vermont 0.9% Sanders
Montana 0.7% Sanders

The four states in orange are marked based on this map.

This very simple model—Clinton wins states with plurality Mexican ancestry and states that are over 8% black, and Sanders wins all other states—predicted the outcome of every state but Michigan, Indiana, Iowa, and South Dakota.

In Michigan, Clinton won the Detroit-Flint area and Sanders won most other counties. In Indiana, Clinton won the southern border of the state and the counties containing Indianapolis and Gary and Sanders won most other counties. In South Dakota, Clinton won the eastern half of the state and Sanders won the western half. Only in Iowa does the distribution of Sanders and Clinton victories look random.

There are obvious demographic factors in Michigan. What happened in Indiana and South Dakota?


3 responses to “The mystery model’s predictions

  1. Jefferson June 8, 2016 at 11:36 pm

    Outliers gonna lie out? Does the ethnic makeup of a state’s white population factor in in any way?

  2. With the thoughts you'd be thinkin June 9, 2016 at 12:31 am

    South Dakota is 10% native american, so maybe thats why. Indiana, I don’t know was it an open primary?

  3. nickbsteves June 14, 2016 at 4:18 am

    Woops, you mislabeled “Mystery Factor” “% Black”.

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